Modelling strategic use of the national antiviral stockpile during the CONTAIN and SUSTAIN phases of an Australian pandemic influenza response

Abstract

Objective: To define optimum use of the national antiviral stockpile during the early phases of the response to pandemic influenza in Australia, to inform the 2008 revision of the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Methods: A mathematical model was used to compare strategic uses of antiviral agents for treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis to limit transmission until availability of a strain-specific vaccine. The impact of provision of pre-exposure prophylaxis to healthcare workers (HCWs) on the ability to control the epidemic was also assessed. Results: Optimal constraint of epidemic growth was achieved by intensive ascertainment of contacts of cases for post-exposu..